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View Full Version : Next week in Bodega? Can I get out?



ngt
11-20-2013, 07:09 AM
I made a thread like this last year and well, I still am not 100% sure about wind direction etc on conditions that would be suitable for me to head out into Bodega for some crabbing. I have a 12ft aluminum boat, looking to drop a few pots on the inside of Doran. All I need to do is get through the channel. I've had bad luck heading out there with things being too rough and almost flipping coming around the jetty etc.. Wondering is some people a bit more knowledgeable with this stuff could tell me if there's a day this next coming week that looks good for me. Thinking Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or even Thursday morning of next week. I could wait until post-Thanksgiving if that's all I've got.

thanks in advance.


-Eric

Line Stretcher
11-20-2013, 11:10 AM
Eric, you have to watch the NOAA reports and tides for Bodega Bay. The longer the seconds between swells usually means calmer conditions but you also need to pay attention to the wind waves. You really should have a handheld VHF with you so you can monitor the weather while your on the water and not get fooled.

Line Stretcher
11-20-2013, 11:47 AM
Eric, I just checked NOAA and it looks like you might have a shot next week. There is a high pressure system that is moving in and they are predicting un seasonably warm temps. The winds will be a little on the stiff side tomorrow and Friday and the high pressure system could cause the wind to persist as it has been known to do this time of year. Usually, it's fairly calm in the morning hours though. You'll still need to watch all the other things I mentioned before just to be safe.

JB14
11-20-2013, 11:47 AM
I don't know if this link will work for you but it's a start.
Marine Point Forecast for Latitude 38.31N and Longitude 123.04W (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.298828528689924&lon=-123.03606033325195)

ngt
11-20-2013, 06:27 PM
Thanks for the link. I remember someone pointing to a buoy closer to the mouth of Bodega?

Steve, thanks for the tips. What would be a combination of wind waves, seconds between swells, and wind speed that would be safe for me and my boat?

JB14
11-20-2013, 07:13 PM
You can click anywhere on that map and it will give you the forecast. It's not always dead nuts accurate but it's always been close when I use it.

You don't want to be in "square" water. That's the size of swell and how many seconds between swells.

6' swell at 6 seconds = not fun
6' swell at 15 seconds = much better.

A lot of guys use the equation of

Wind speed + swell size + wind waves = 20+ and they wait another day.

No one can tell you what's safe for your boat. That will be up to you. Only you know what your limit is and what you're comfortable with.

Good luck out there and be safe!!

Line Stretcher
11-20-2013, 07:30 PM
Thanks for the link. I remember someone pointing to a buoy closer to the mouth of Bodega?

Steve, thanks for the tips. What would be a combination of wind waves, seconds between swells, and wind speed that would be safe for me and my boat?

Eric JB14 is correct. I do know your boat but I haven't been out in it so I can't say for sure. I can tell you that when I had a 14' Western, I was good to about 2' wind waves if I could head into them. If they were following I was toast. The worst by far was a swell from one direction and a wind from the other aka confused waves. It doesn't sound like much but it can be flat out scary in a boat the size of yours.

The biggest problem with you taking out your boat to crab is that you have to set the pots and let them soak which means you may be fine in the morning but screwed in the afternoon. Leave those pots out there too long and they'll grow legs.

ngt
11-20-2013, 07:57 PM
You can click anywhere on that map and it will give you the forecast. It's not always dead nuts accurate but it's always been close when I use it.

You don't want to be in "square" water. That's the size of swell and how many seconds between swells.

6' swell at 6 seconds = not fun
6' swell at 15 seconds = much better.

A lot of guys use the equation of

Wind speed + swell size + wind waves = 20+ and they wait another day.

No one can tell you what's safe for your boat. That will be up to you. Only you know what your limit is and what you're comfortable with.

Good luck out there and be safe!!

Well, I've only been out there 4 times, once it was a bit bumpy, once the coast guard told me that I was crazy for trying to go out in my boat, and twice it was like glass. Problem is, I have no idea what the numbers were on any of those days. Steve has seen my boat and knows what different combinations of those numbers would look like. I don't need "glass", but I'd rather not have the "Oh damn I might die" feeling, lol

Line Stretcher
11-20-2013, 08:00 PM
Well, I've only been out there 4 times, once it was a bit bumpy, once the coast guard told me that I was crazy for trying to go out in my boat, and twice it was like glass. Problem is, I have no idea what the numbers were on any of those days. Steve has seen my boat and knows what different combinations of those numbers would look like. I don't need "glass", but I'd rather not have the "Oh damn I might die" feeling, lol

LOL, yep, I've kissed a few ramps in the days of the old western. Why don't you give the CG station a call and see what they have to say.

JB14
11-20-2013, 08:20 PM
You'll be able to see the forecast on the day before. It will say (example) W winds at 4 mph with 3' swells at 10 seconds with 1' wind waves.

You'll be able to see it. Look at the forecast tomorrow and you'll have an idea of what to look for.

ngt
11-20-2013, 08:23 PM
Eric JB14 is correct. I do know your boat but I haven't been out in it so I can't say for sure. I can tell you that when I had a 14' Western, I was good to about 2' wind waves if I could head into them. If they were following I was toast. The worst by far was a swell from one direction and a wind from the other aka confused waves. It doesn't sound like much but it can be flat out scary in a boat the size of yours.

The biggest problem with you taking out your boat to crab is that you have to set the pots and let them soak which means you may be fine in the morning but screwed in the afternoon. Leave those pots out there too long and they'll grow legs.

Never had an issue with pots moving as I'm around the inside jetty of Doran with the kayaks, lol, but I do know it can get bad in there too. It's just being able to get around that end. I don't intend on going anywhere near the mouth or the outside. I have all next week off, so pretty much any day. I'll keep on that NOAA site. If it's not looking good, I can always just climb down the hill and out the outside jetty with rings, but man that is so much more work.

Line Stretcher
11-20-2013, 08:37 PM
After thought, if you can't get out of Bodega, you might head north and take a right instead of going to Jenner. Casini's would be a good place to give the fly rod a little workout.

ngt
11-20-2013, 08:47 PM
You'll be able to see the forecast on the day before. It will say (example) W winds at 4 mph with 3' swells at 10 seconds with 1' wind waves.

You'll be able to see it. Look at the forecast tomorrow and you'll have an idea of what to look for.

I've seen the numbers, but I'd have to see them and then drive out to bodega and look at the water to really know what they look like. Then figure out what my "number total" is for my setup I guess.

ngt
11-20-2013, 08:50 PM
After thought, if you can't get out of Bodega, you might head north and take a right instead of going to Jenner. Casini's would be a good place to give the fly rod a little workout.

nice, that could happen. Buddy wants me to float the Feather with him, but local is good.

Line Stretcher
11-21-2013, 11:17 AM
Here's what you're looking at through next Wednesday. It might be a good opportunity to go have a look and get an idea for the future. Take the boat and gear with you, you never want to miss an opportunity.

Gusts to 30 in the gaps puts Lake Sonoma off the radar for me until later next week at least.

000
FXUS66 KMTR 211749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST THU NOV 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:29 AM PST THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE PICKED UP ON KMUX RADAR...MAINLY ACROSS AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 1/10 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING IN
CLOUD COVER CAN ALREADY BE SEEN VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. OVER ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PST THURSDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH OVER CONTRA COSTA AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES. THE
UPPER LOW CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR SACRAMENTO AND IS SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY SHIFTING SOUTH WHILE THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE AMPLIFICATION IS ALSO
OCCURRING WITH THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AS THE LOW THAT BROUGHT US A SOAKING RAIN MOVES SOUTH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL TEND TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREA TODAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING/THUNDER
IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30 RANGE BEFORE
DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.

RECENT RAINS LEFT A GOOD DEAL OF HUMIDITY AROUND THIS MORNING BUT
ONGOING CLOUD COVER...AREAS OF WIND 5-10 MPH...AND A LACK OF SURFACE
BASED INVERSIONS REDUCES SUPPORT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AN EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE A POSSIBLE PATCH OR TWO OF FOG IN A WIND PROTECTED
VALLEY.

A RAPID WEATHER CHANGE FROM WET TO DRY IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA THAT RESULTED IN SOME COPIOUS RAINFALL TOTALS THIS
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE STEADILY SOUTH REACHING SOCAL LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF OVER SOCAL AS
STRONGER JET STREAM WINDS WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW BY SUNDAY THEN EJECT IT
E-SE OVER AZ/NM AND NORTHERN MEXICO TAKING THE ENTIRE LOW EASTWARD
NEXT WEEK. BUT BEFORE THIS HAPPENS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN (OBS OVER NEVADA ALREADY SHOW THIS). AS
MENTIONED LAST EVENING THE WMC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TO ABOUT 16-18 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION
OF STEEP AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS WELL AS
SOME LINKAGE TO LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
AND DRY PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY
E-NE WINDS. IN SHORT...WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SIERRA
NEVADA. WE DECIDED THE BEST ROUTE TO TAKE WAS TO BUMP UP THE
FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ZONES COVERING THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...EAST BAY HILLS/AND DIABLO RANGE...INCLUDING
THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST IN PARTICULAR THE COASTAL GAPS
WHICH OFTEN CHANNEL STRONGER WIND GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM TODAY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY EVENING. BY 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND DECOUPLING WILL
INCREASE THEREFORE REDUCING THE CHANCES OF A WIND EVENT EXTENDING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE WAY ANY TRAVEL PLANS THAT INCLUDE
DRIVING TO OR FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA...KEEP IN MIND THAT HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE PRESENTLY POSTED THERE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

FORTUNATELY THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPCOMING WIND EVENT WAS PRECEDED
BY A SOAKING RAIN...AND LONGER NIGHT-TIME NOV HOURS HELPS WITH
SOME HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. FIRE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE.

BY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN INCLUDING
LOCATIONS WHERE ADVISORIES ARE PRESENTLY POSTED. IF THE WINDS
SETTLE QUICK ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A MODERATE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS ONTO THE WEST COAST.

THE PROGNOSTIC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE HAVE
BEEN...ALBEIT SLOWLY...TRENDING THE WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKER W/TIME
AND THE RIDGE LOOKS SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BROKEN DOWN BY THE NEXT
IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARRIVING POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BUT THE CAVEAT IS LOW TO MAYBE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
BEYOND DAYS 4-5.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 AM PST THURSDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. FAIRLY
RAPID CLEARING AND DRYING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY AS DRY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST SETTLES OVER
REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DECREASING AND MOVING OUT OF AREA.
TAFS WILL SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH
STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH JUST SOME MID
LEVEL BASED CLOUDS NOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY THAT COULD
IMPACT OPERATIONAL LANDING AND TAKEOFF.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND CIGS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING TREND BY 21Z...TURNING
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 4 PM

&&

Line Stretcher
11-22-2013, 12:10 PM
Eric, it looks like things are settling down, we went from 10mb to 6mb this morning, tomorrow, Sunday, Monday and maybe Tuesday might be O.K. The low is going to suck in a storm on Tuesday evening and the next opportunity would probably be Friday.

I'm going to load up and go to Sonoma in the morning. It'll be cold but that's good.

S

ngt
11-22-2013, 07:06 PM
Eric, it looks like things are settling down, we went from 10mb to 6mb this morning, tomorrow, Sunday, Monday and maybe Tuesday might be O.K. The low is going to suck in a storm on Tuesday evening and the next opportunity would probably be Friday.

I'm going to load up and go to Sonoma in the morning. It'll be cold but that's good.

S


Great, thanks! Have fun out there :D

ngt
11-25-2013, 07:18 PM
This is Wednesday...daytime...

look ok?

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 2 TO 3 FT AT
15 SECONDS.

Line Stretcher
11-25-2013, 07:44 PM
This is Wednesday...daytime...

look ok?

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 2 TO 3 FT AT
15 SECONDS.

I'd go on that report. 15 sec's is basically flat. The wind shouldn't be a problem. As usual, you make the final decision when you get there. Trust your gut.

ngt
11-26-2013, 02:19 PM
Cool, I think I'm going to give it a shot.

ngt
11-26-2013, 06:13 PM
Changed slightly

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 3 TO
5 FT AT 14 SECONDS.

thoughts?

Line Stretcher
11-26-2013, 07:10 PM
Changed slightly

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 3 TO
5 FT AT 14 SECONDS.

thoughts?

Look at the way Doran Beach is sitting on the map and then draw a line to the south east. That will tell you if the waves are going to be a problem or not. If that really does materialize I'm not sure you have the horsepower with your 9 to power through it. If one of those 3ft waves catches your bow it might turn you sideways and you'll be in deep do do.

I'm being over cautious simply because of the potential for a serious incident. You have to make the final call. Like I said before, at least go and have a look but if your gut say's no then trust it. If all else fails, stop at Spuds and by some crab.

ngt
11-26-2013, 07:45 PM
Look at the way Doran Beach is sitting on the map and then draw a line to the south east. That will tell you if the waves are going to be a problem or not. If that really does materialize I'm not sure you have the horsepower with your 9 to power through it. If one of those 3ft waves catches your bow it might turn you sideways and you'll be in deep do do.

I'm being over cautious simply because of the potential for a serious incident. You have to make the final call. Like I said before, at least go and have a look but if your gut say's no then trust it. If all else fails, stop at Spuds and by some crab.

As rare as it has been lately for me to get out fishing, I'm going fishing one way or another. If it's even a chance I'll have to turn around and come back without hitting the water I'll head somewhere else or just climb the outside jetty and toss rings. I'll keep checking the weather, but it seems to keep heading in the wrong direction.

Line Stretcher
11-26-2013, 07:47 PM
As rare as it has been lately for me to get out fishing, I'm going fishing one way or another. If it's even a chance I'll have to turn around and come back without hitting the water I'll head somewhere else or just climb the outside jetty and toss rings. I'll keep checking the weather, but it seems to keep heading in the wrong direction.

Then just go already... LOL.. :beer:

ngt
11-26-2013, 08:33 PM
lol, sounds like a plan

salmonid
11-26-2013, 09:27 PM
I wouldn't be out in a 12' open boat in those conditions. The combined wave height is too high for me.

Be safe, like okie says!



Changed slightly

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 3 TO
5 FT AT 14 SECONDS.

thoughts?

ngt
11-27-2013, 06:19 AM
I wouldn't be out in a 12' open boat in those conditions. The combined wave height is too high for me.

Be safe, like okie says!


changed to...

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. NW SWELL 5 TO
7 FT AT 9 SECONDS.

I'm going to climb the outside jetty. I want some crabs, lol. At least now I'll have a set of numbers and assuming the link....

NDBC - NWS Forecast (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.KMTR.html)

is the right one and I'm reading the right line (the first set)

Thing is, I'm on the inside of Doran and I don't know how far out the buoy is. If I'm looking at the right numbers, at least I'll have something to go by. If it looks like easy water all day inside the bay, then I'll know what to look for next time.

Line Stretcher
11-27-2013, 09:16 AM
changed to...

SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. NW SWELL 5 TO
7 FT AT 9 SECONDS.

I'm going to climb the outside jetty. I want some crabs, lol. At least now I'll have a set of numbers and assuming the link....

NDBC - NWS Forecast (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.KMTR.html)

is the right one and I'm reading the right line (the first set)

Thing is, I'm on the inside of Doran and I don't know how far out the buoy is. If I'm looking at the right numbers, at least I'll have something to go by. If it looks like easy water all day inside the bay, then I'll know what to look for next time.

Let us know how it goes. At least now you'll have a reference for future outings.

ngt
11-27-2013, 02:37 PM
Let us know how it goes. At least now you'll have a reference for future outings.

Went out on the outside jetty and the channel looked pretty rough for my little boat. Saw two guys get about half way down in a 12 foot, a little smaller than mine. They were taking water over the front, then their motor stalled in the channel. Took 10+ pulls to get it going again as they rocked around in the channel. When they got it started they turned around and went in. 2 hours later it was calm and I could have cruised in and out with no problem, but I never would have seen it because like the other guys, I would have been home by then. Climbed out on the outside jetty and man I forgot how much work that was getting 3/4 of the way out with bait in a bucket, a backpack, a rod, and a couple of rings. I ended up with 3 keeper dungies and I kept one rock. Tossed back a couple of dungies that were just under and about a dozen rock that were keepers, but more work than the little guys were worth. Overall, I'm happy, since my wife doesn't eat crab and my son got to play with them a bit in the sink. Water is coming to a boil now.


Some guys were on the outside jetty using lead heads in blue and clear and pulling in lings.

Beautiful day out there once everything calmed down. (As I was leaving)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/0903/cossackred/IMG_20131127_123841_314_zpsf6e1f58e.jpg


Other side of the head (as I was leaving)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/0903/cossackred/IMG_20131127_123609_860_zpsfbbb2834.jpg


Can you tell which one is happy to be in this picture? lol

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/0903/cossackred/IMG_20131127_135334_737_zpsf91bc95d.jpg


In the end, it's nice to know what that level of wind etc looks like in the channel. Once it calmed down, it would have been cake to get in and out and soak pots for a few hours. At about 10 is when it got nice. By the amount of garbage on the outside jetty, I'm assuming it has been getting hit pretty hard. Oh, I found a 12 foot extending poke pole out on the jetty. I like it a lot :D But I'm going to post it in the lost and found anyways, lol.

salmonid
11-27-2013, 03:26 PM
Looks like success to me.

Enjoy those sea spiders!

ngt
11-27-2013, 04:10 PM
Looks like success to me.

Enjoy those sea spiders!

Thanks. Not what it would have been with the boat, and my shoulders wouldn't be hurting, but I had a good time. It's nice to get back out there. I use to climb down the outside jetty all the time, but then they closed the lot on that side so the walk got a lot further and I got older and lazy. Oh, and had a kid. lol

speaking of spiders, I pulled up a spider crab in my net today that was bigger than my dungies. Hadn't seen one that big before. Phone was not close so no pick, which I guess means it didn't happen, lol.

Line Stretcher
11-27-2013, 05:37 PM
Good to hear you got out there and got some. There will be another day for the boat.