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Tyeechinook
01-30-2014, 08:21 PM
Anybody heard any predictions for 2014 in the Central Valley rivers? American, Sacramento? Sf bay?


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49erbassman
01-30-2014, 08:23 PM
I predict if we don't get rain and snow we may not have a river season because they will all be closed.


Fish on!

salmonid
01-30-2014, 08:41 PM
I think it'll be another epic year because ocean conditions remain good for chinook in California. Low river water levels should have little influence on the number of adult fish that are out in the ocean, or that come back to spawn this next season.

We talked about this on another thread here, but basically NOAA/NMFS (agencies who regulate salmon seasons on the West coast) have not come out with a salmon forecast for CA yet, and won't until later in the year. Up on the Columbia river, things are looking pretty good, but our salmon don't go to the same areas in the ocean, so??

Here is the timeline for regs and decisions: 2014 Preseason Process for Salmon Management | Pacific Fishery Management Council (http://www.pcouncil.org/salmon/current-season-management/salmon-preseason-process-schedule/)

Anyway, here is something to think about from NOAA:
In 2012, scientists forecast above-average returns of coho in 2013 and Chinook in 2014. Similar to the past several years, individual indicators have sent a mixed message. Certain indicators suggest the potential for above average returns (the persistence of strong La Niņa conditions, a negative PDO, positive copepod indicators from May-September, and high catches of spring Chinook salmon in the June survey). However, negative indicators include a late start to the upwelling season, a very warm sea surface temperatures in June and July and a short upwelling season. Given these mixed signals, scientists were less certain of the prediction for coho salmon in 2013 and Chinook salmon in 2014.



In 2013, the recent trend of mixed ocean conditions continued. The physical indicators such as PDO and El Niņo were both "neutral", sea surface temperatures were warmer than usual, and upwelling was weak (except for July). However, all biological indicators pointed to good ocean conditions - large lipid-rich zooplankton were present in high numbers, winter fish larvae which become salmon prey in spring were moderately abundant, and catches of spring Chinook during the June survey off Washington and Oregon were second highest in 16 years. Given these mixed signals (and by assigning greater weight to the 'biological indicators'), scientists see potential for good returns of coho salmon in 2014 and both types of Chinook salmon in 2015.
From: Ocean Indicators and Salmon Forecasting - Northwest Fisheries Science Center (http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/hottopics/salmon_forecasts.cfm)

Best,

salmonid
01-30-2014, 08:56 PM
Tyee, I found the other sniffer thread I mentioned:

http://www.fishsniffer.com/forums/salmon-steelhead-board/109815-outlook-2014-salmon-looks-another-epic-year.html

Lots of ideas, but we will have to wait and see!

Best,